🔮Projected Ownership

Player ownership in daily fantasy sports is important because it determines the uniqueness of a player's lineup compared to others, which can influence potential winnings.

Example: If a high-performing player is under-owned, their performance can give a significant edge to the few who selected them, helping to win in large tournaments where differentiation is key.

There's two ways to view Projected Ownership (pOwn%) one is on the DFS Projections page, and the other is on the Projected Ownership page.

How Does LineStar's Projected Ownership Work?

Projected Ownership from DFS data providers like LineStar is a predictive model based on historical and current data. We consider factors like player performance, matchups, injury reports, and player salaries to estimate the percentage of fantasy teams that will have a particular player in their lineup. These projections help users to strategize, balancing their lineup between highly-owned, reliable players, and less-owned "sleeper" players who could provide a significant advantage if they perform well.

You're best to think of Projected ownership as a range rather than an exact. Like all projections, it's there to help give you a better idea of what to expect and be able to model that into your process.

You'll see projected ownership expressed as pOwn% on the player matrix.

pOwn = Projected Ownership % and actOwn = Actual Ownership %

How can a DFS Player best take advantage of Projected Ownership?

A player can best take into account projected ownership by leveraging it to create a diverse and balanced lineup. Here's a few strategies:

1. Contrarian Strategy: Selecting less-owned players ("contrarian picks") could pay off big if these players perform well, as fewer competitors will benefit from this performance.

2. Stacking: In sports like NFL and MLB, stacking (selecting multiple players from the same team) can sometimes be a solid strategy, especially if the team is projected to perform well but has low projected ownership.

3. Balanced Exposure: It's generally not a good strategy to only select high or low ownership players. A balance of both can ensure a baseline of points from popular picks while potentially reaping the benefits of good performances from less popular picks.

4. Understanding Matchups and Game Script: The projected ownership often reflects the popular sentiment around a player's expected performance. However, by understanding the matchups and potential game script better than the average competitor, a player can find undervalued picks that others are ignoring.

Remember, projected ownership is only one piece of the puzzle in daily fantasy sports, and it should be used in conjunction with other research and strategies to build the best lineup.