📊DFS Projections
Projections are a BIG part of Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS)
Last updated
Projections are a BIG part of Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS)
Last updated
LineStar DFS Projections utilize a comprehensive, automated system to produce its unique proprietary projections. Drawing from over 100+ distinct variables per athlete, the factors considered range from opponent and venue specifics to historical performance data. As such, each time a new slate of games is opened, an initial projection is computed.
DFS Projections are simply a expected median outcome, and there is a range of outcome that each player has, and studying those ranges are key to GPP Tournament and cash game success.
Yet, these projections are not static. As the day unfolds, continuous refinements are made based on changing conditions such as weather updates, lineup alterations, and breaking news. The process is seamlessly automated to ensure accuracy and timeliness. For example, a player being pulled from a starting lineup due to injury would receive a 0 projection and be flagged to be removed from lineups in the optimizer.
There are instances, however, where anomalies may prompt an extreme outcome that necessitates human intervention. In such cases, the projection is flagged and forwarded to a sport-specific expert for review. If required, they provide the necessary modifications to the projections.
Here you can see the projection for Jesús Luzardo 42.45 fantasy points.
One important thing here is that YOU can change the projection.
Perhaps you think the player will perform better than we projected. You can input whatever you like for their projection, and it will affect how they are used in the optimizer.
On the left of the projection you'll see 'Scored' which is a live-scoring which updates once the games get started. It also serves as a historical point of reference once the slate has concluded.
You can always look at previous game periods and slates to back test your strategies.
In this example, the projection shown is unique to FanDuel, and based on their fantasy rules and scoring. However, you can swap between DFS providers at the top left of the website.
HINT: On LineStar Mobile Apps you can enable notifications to get projection changes sent to your phone or tablet.
Consensus projections are an aggregate average of the industries top projections.
Consensus projections, the aggregate weighted average of top industry projections, are important to DFS players because they provide a more balanced and reliable estimate of player performance. By averaging various expert opinions, they mitigate individual bias or error, giving players a more robust and trusted base for making their lineup decisions.
Consensus projections is pretty unique to LineStar and as far as we know, nobody else has them. Ultimately this gives you an idea of what the rest of the field believes the player is capable of. If you spot a large difference between LineStar projections and Consensus projections maybe that's a signal to you.
Importing projections from an alternative provider is simple and fast.
Simply select 'Settings' top right and click 'import projections'
Select your source CSV or Copy/Paste the projections
Map the correct columns. Providers often times name their columns differently than us. Simply select the name + projected fantasy points and we'll do the rest.
Final step is to map any outlier names. Usually players with suffixes IE. Jr/Sr/II etc. or players who share names.
Q: Why would you want to import external projections?
A: Well perhaps you trust someone else more than you trust us and just want to use our tools, for example, to build or optimize lineups.
Q: Where do you get DFS Projections?
A: Besides our own proprietary LineStar Projections and consensus projections which are included with your LineStar Premium Subscription - many of our competitors offer them, or you can make your own!
Exporting projections on LineStar couldn't be easier. First, make sure you you're on the EXACT provider/slate that you want. IE) DraftKings > Baseball > Main Slate
Then tap Settings > Export Projections. It will automagically generate a CSV to download promptly including all of LineStar's Projections
Just remember the golden rules! LineStar Projections are for YOU to use. Not for anyone else. Please do not share or attempt to resell LineStar Projections. That is ground for account removal and permanent ban from LineStar services moving forward.
LineStar DFS Projections offer several advantages over competitors:
Comprehensive Data: LineStar uses a vast range of data sources, including historical performance, matchup data, Vegas odds, weather conditions, and more to provide accurate projections. Additionally, our projection system is self-healing in nature. Meaning, if projections fall out of the expected floor/ceiling range, the projection system looks at itself and asks why? If there's not a good answer such as the player got injured, ejected, or another good reason then the system rechecks all variables.
Consensus Projections: Instead of relying on a single source of projections, LineStar also offers Consensus Projections which combines the aggregate weighted average of top industry projections into a proprietary consensus projection. This reduces individual bias and outliers, giving a more reliable estimate. You CAN use consensus projections to drive your lineup optimization.
Real-Time Updates: LineStar's projections are updated in real-time, reflecting the latest news and updates like injuries or lineup changes.
Advanced Metrics: Beyond just raw numbers, LineStar provides advanced metrics to give a deeper understanding of a player’s potential performance.
Contextual Analysis: LineStar offers an analysis of player metrics in context, comparing it against past performance, player averages, and opponent statistics. This provides a more nuanced understanding of a player's potential.
Ease of Use: Despite the complexity of the data used, LineStar's interface is user-friendly and intuitive. This allows users, irrespective of their level of expertise, to effectively leverage these advanced tools for their strategy.
Multi-Platform Syncing: LineStar offers seamless syncing between its desktop and mobile applications, ensuring users can manage and update their strategies conveniently, anytime, anywhere.
Advanced Sorting Methods: LineStar goes beyond basic sorting methods by offering advanced options to sift through projections. This feature allows users to customize how they view and interpret data, tailoring it to their specific strategies and priorities. Whether it's filtering by floor and ceiling projections, sorting by value-to-salary ratios, or categorizing by position or matchup, LineStar empowers users with the flexibility to explore and analyze data from multiple perspectives. This helps users pinpoint key opportunities and make more informed decisions for their DFS lineups.
In conclusion, LineStar stands out from the competition due to its comprehensive, accurate, and user-friendly approach to DFS projections. It uniquely combines consensus projections, real-time updates, advanced metrics, and contextual analysis to provide an unrivaled depth of insight. Furthermore, with advanced sorting methods and seamless multi-platform syncing, LineStar offers a level of flexibility and convenience that caters to every user's unique strategy and needs. Whether you're a DFS cash player or a tournament player, a novice or a veteran, LineStar equips you with the tools and data you need to gain a competitive edge in your fantasy sports experience. Choose LineStar and experience a superior way of navigating the DFS landscape.
Basketball (NBA): Basketball, particularly NBA, tends to be one of the sports with the most accurate DFS projections. This is because basketball is a high-scoring game with a lot of measurable statistics such as points, rebounds, assists, blocks, and steals. Furthermore, star players typically get a lot of playing time and touches, which allows for more predictable outcomes.
Baseball (MLB): While baseball can be unpredictable due to its heavy dependence on individual events, DFS projections can be fairly accurate, particularly for pitchers. Pitching statistics such as strikeouts, innings pitched, and earned run average are fairly predictable over the long run. However, hitting in baseball can be less predictable due to variables such as luck and variance in short-term performance.
Football (NFL): While football DFS projections can be accurate for positions like quarterbacks and running backs, it tends to be less predictable for wide receivers and tight ends due to the dependency on variables like play calling and game flow.
Golf (PGA): Golf can be quite predictable when considering players' historical performance on similar courses, or their recent form. However, elements such as weather conditions can greatly impact performance and add an element of unpredictability.
It's important to note that the accuracy of projections also heavily depends on the quality of the data, the model used for projections, and timely incorporation of all relevant information (like player injuries, lineup changes, and weather conditions). In the end, while projections provide a useful guide, there is always an element of unpredictability in sports, which is part of what makes DFS so exciting.
